Let’s take Raptors vs. Warriors NBA finals as an example.
Before the Raptors vs. Warriors series even started, most NBA experts declared the Warriors would win the series. Let’s look at some of their assumptions.
According to Alex Kay, a contributor of Forbes, “The public has clearly taken notice of the Warriors penchant for performing well in Game 1’s, as 73% of all spread bets and 81% of the cash wagered is backing Golden State to cover.”
Jack Maloney, an NBA writer for CBS, also stated, “Entering the 2019 NBA Finals, the Golden State Warriors were considered to be the favorite to raise the Larry O’Brien trophy.”
But wait, there’s more.
To reinforce his point, Jack Maloney explained, “Before the series, CBS Sports’ panel of NBA experts provided their picks, and as you’ll find out, the only thing they disagreed on is how long this series would last.”
In other words, all the experts agreed the Raptors wouldn’t be able to stop or compete with the Warriors. We both know what happened.
I can almost hear you thinking, “Why were all the experts wrong?”
That leads us to “Base rate fallacy.” What do you mean? I’ll explain.
Raptors vs. Warriors predictions: A rate based fallacy
See, base rate fallacy is the tendency to jump to conclusions without analyzing all data and factors that are relevant to the situation at hand. Here’s an example of base rate fallacy in the Raptors vs. Warriors case.
The warriors has won 5 championships. The Raptors has never won a championship. Everyone has seen the warriors in NBA finals but this is Raptors’ first NBA finals. Therefore, the Warriors will win the 2019 finals.
This argument might sound logical but it’s not. It’s rather a fallacy.
In the wavelength, some hiring managers and search committees tend to make decisions without offering their job applicants a fair chance. Rather, they make easy selections based on fallacies.
Here’s an example of their reasoning:
“We know candidate A. He has lots of experience. Someone we know recommend him. Some of us attended the same school candidate A went to. But we don’t know candidate B. We don’t know anyone who knows candidate B. None of us attended her school. Therefore, candidate A is a better fit for the job.”
This is a total fallacy.
So what’s the solution?
If you are a smart professional you should escape and stay above the competition:
Find a CI coach to help you pick yourself. As James Altucher the author of Choose Yourself, puts it : “Don’t wait to be picked. Choose yourself!”
Keep improving your crafts or your skills.
Make things. Tangible things that solve real problems.
Display your expertise and business acumen as much as you can.
Expand your network and social capital as much as you can.
Here’s the big secret: the best way to beat base rate fallacy is to become a true linchpin —so good that you can’t be ignored—in your field.
Now, let me ask you this: “What are you making or what solutions do you bring to the marketplace?
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